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Research on the Impact of International Crude Oil Prices on Chinese Price Index
Author: SunZuo
Tutor: DuJinXiang
School: Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: International Crude Oil Price Price Index VAR Model Impulse Response Analysis VarianceDecomposition
CLC: F726
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 3
Quote: 0
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Abstract
Oil is non-renewable resources and geographic distribution of non-equilibrium commodities. Since World War II, the exploitation and consumption of oil and natural gas has began to increase dramatically. After the high oil prices of the two oil crises in the1970s, oil consumption was not reduced due to the rising price. In2004, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan(IEEJ) pointed out in the result of their research that in the world’s energy consumption structure, the oil proportion is about two fifths and is expected to be the world’s major energy oil in2020. Therefore, fluctuations of international crude oil prices will have a decisive influence on the global economy in the future.In this context, by working on the impact of the international crude oil prices on China’s price index, the article is to analyze the impact of international crude oil prices on the price level in China. Thus proposing the core problem of the article:in which pathway the international crude oil price impact on China’s price level, and also exactly how much influence on China’s price index. Besides, it also puts forward the countermeasures against the international crude oil price shocks.Based on analysis of the extensive literature research, the article firstly uses the general statistical analysis method to draw the interactive relationship between the international crude oil prices and the price index in China, and then seeks interactive transduction pathway between crude oil prices and the price index through theoretical analysis. Finally, by establishing the vector auto-regression VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, the article is to analyze the relationship between the long-run equilibrium and short term fluctuations in the international crude oil prices and the price index in China. It is recommended that the government should introduce policies and measures for prevention and control of price index, and also the proposed state intervention measures. It also proposes the corresponding countermeasures to cope with the impact of international crude oil prices, to control the price level in China, promoting China’s factual basis provided by the steady and healthy development.
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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > China's domestic trade and economic > Price
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